Script vidéo A - Is Paraguay worth it

# Vidéo A · Script EN · v1 (brouillon complet, Matt repasse derrière) > Chaîne MOA Real Estate · ANGLAIS · durée cible 8-11 min · rétention visée 40-50%. > Règle : HOOK + PRÉSENTATION = verbatim Matt, NE PAS TOUCHER. Le reste est un 1er jet à affiner. > Marques : [VERBATIM] intouchable · [ANECDOTE] vécu réel de Matt · [NUANCE] prise à contre-courant > assumée · [TRANSITION] liant · [GRAPHIC] à afficher à l'écran · [À CONFIRMER] chiffre à verrouiller. > Les 2 boucles : B1 "is it worth it = le vrai net" (hook → conclusion) · B2 "the #1 trap" > (présentation → partie Pièges). --- ## 0:00-0:10 · HOOK [VERBATIM, NE PAS TOUCHER] "Paraguay blew up in 2026 and everybody is telling you that this is the best place to invest in 2026 [editing : flash infos about paraguay and growth] to make the best ROI. But is it really ? In this video, we are gonna look at the real numbers and i will help you answering this important question : Is paraguay actually worth it ?" ## 0:10-0:25 · PRÉSENTATION [VERBATIM, NE PAS TOUCHER] "To quickly introduce myself, my name is Matt i´ve been living here in Paraguay for more than 3 years and with my company we sell appartments and manage them on airbnb. In this video, we are gonna talk about price per square, income you can expect, all the expenses and even the taxes. And stay until the end, I also reveal you the number 1 trap about investing in Paraguay." --- ## 1 · Where Paraguay actually stands [TRANSITION] Before we even start, let me clarify the first thing everybody gets wrong. Most videos tell you that Paraguay is the new gold rush caming out of nowhere, but that is not true. Paraguay has been growing quietly for about twenty years. Stable economy, an independent central bank, inflation around 4% a year for a decade, low public debt. What IS actually new, since 2020-2021, is three things: - a massive construction boom in Asunción - the country getting its investment grade, - and a wave of foreigners arriving. [GRAPHIC: 3 mots à l'écran, "CONSTRUCTION BOOM · INVESTMENT GRADE · FOREIGNERS ARRIVING"] And the economy is not slowing down. [GRAPHIC: chiffres] GDP grew 6.6% in 2025, and 2026 is forecast around 4.7%, the strongest growth in the region. [TRANSITION] So the country is real. It's not only a new trend sold by relocation influencers. In a minute I'll show you exactly what MY apartment makes. But first, you need to understand WHY the demand is real, because this is where most people get fooled. ## 2 · The growth is mathematical, not artificial Here is the number everybody throws at you: Paraguay has the biggest housing deficit in Latin America, 65% of households. [GRAPHIC: "Housing deficit · 65% of households (Habitat)"] And then they tell you: "so your Airbnb will always be rented." [NUANCE] That is a trap, and I'll tell you why, even though I sell real estate. That deficit is real, but around 90% of it is about QUALITY, families whose home needs to be improved, not a shortage of new apartments. The real shortage of new housing is closer to 100,000 units. So the deficit is background, it is NOT what fills your apartment. What actually drives rental demand is different: the migration wave, a very young population, more than half the country under thirty starting their own household, cities that keep expanding, business travel, regional tourists from Brazil and Argentina, and students. [GRAPHIC: liste à l'écran] [ANECDOTE / contradiction visuelle] And you've probably seen the other argument: "look, the buildings are dark at night, nobody lives there, there's no demand." Here's the thing. A big share of those empty units were never meant to be rented. In a region where people want to get out of their local currency, an apartment is a dollarized safe. It sits empty on purpose. That's not a failed rental, that's a completely different game, capital preservation. And those owners are not even competing with me for Airbnb guests. ## 3 · What does an apartment cost: off-plan vs finished Quick one, because it's not the heart of the video. You buy either off-plan, a building that will be delivered in two or three years, or finished, ready today. You've heard "buy off-plan and you make 20 to 30%." On some construction cycles, that's true. But be honest with yourself: that's capital appreciation over the build, it is not rental yield, and it is not guaranteed. [NUANCE] And never do what half the gurus do: take the income of a FINISHED, running apartment and divide it by an OFF-PLAN entry price. Those are two different things. I'll keep them separate for you. [TRANSITION] And by the way, "finished" is not automatically the safe choice. That's actually tied to the number one trap, we'll get there. ### 3bis · Can a foreigner even buy here? Fast answer, because it blocks a lot of you: yes. A foreigner can own 100% of the property, clear title, no residency required. You don't need to live here, you don't need papers to own. [GRAPHIC: "Foreigner = 100% ownership · clear title · no residency"] ## 4 · Prices and the real entry ticket New-build prices in Asunción run roughly 1,000 to 2,000 dollars per square meter. [GRAPHIC] Let me anchor that for you. Panama City, the comparison everyone makes, is often above 2,800 dollars per square meter. [GRAPHIC: "Asunción ~$1,000-2,000/m² vs Panama City >$2,800/m²"] So on paper, Paraguay is cheap. The entry ticket: you can get in from around 45,000 dollars for a studio or a one-bedroom off-plan in good neighborhoods like Villa Morra, Ykua Satí or Santa Teresa. [NUANCE] But cheap does not mean profitable everywhere. The premium, high-end segment is exactly where yields get compressed, and I'll show you why at the end. Low price is an opportunity only if the location and the segment are right. ## 5 · What it ACTUALLY makes [LE COEUR, referme en partie une partie de B1] Now the part you came for. The real numbers. Here's what every video tells you: Asunción Airbnb does 55 to 65% occupancy, 40 to 50 dollars a night. [GRAPHIC: "The average: 55-65% occupancy · $40-50/night"] [NUANCE, assumée] Here's what nobody tells you: that's an AVERAGE. And an average is dragged down by all the badly managed, badly decorated, badly priced apartments on the market. [ANECDOTE] Let me tell you what I see every week. Tons of people come to me saying "Airbnb doesn't work in Paraguay." But these are people who were not willing to put money into decoration and furniture. So they end up with an ugly Airbnb. And an ugly apartment, at the same price as a nice one, can't win. The single biggest driver of your occupancy is not even the zone, it's the DECORATION. Good decoration doesn't let you charge more per night, it lets you fill the calendar. The only way an ugly, neglected apartment gets occupancy is a price war: renting at 25 what should rent at 35. That's why those owners complain, they're doing it wrong. So let me show you a real one. [GRAPHIC: fiche appart à l'écran, B-roll du vrai appart] - A studio, 38 square meters, bought at 65,000 dollars, basically finished. - Occupancy over the last months: around 90%. [À CONFIRMER: stats exactes] - Average price per night: around 35 dollars. - Net in my pocket: around [À CONFIRMER: net réel/mois, ~$580 estimé] per month, which comes out around [À CONFIRMER: ~10-11%] net per year on the purchase price. And that's not luck. We manage around 20 units, and an analyst from Forbes Paraguay puts well-located, well-managed short-term rentals at 8 to 11% net a year. The average operator is far below that, not because the market is bad, but because they run it badly. ## 6 · The expenses, fully transparent Now, the number I just gave you is NET. Because the yield everybody advertises is gross, and gross is not what you keep. Let me open the whole thing on this studio. [GRAPHIC: liste de charges qui se déroule] - Management: my agency charges 20%. The market is 15 to 20%. [TRANSITION] And I'll tell you why I think 20 is worth more than 15 in a second. - Building charges, the expensas: around 1.2 dollars per square meter per month, water included. - Electricity: around 50 dollars a month. - Internet: a box from 10 to 15 dollars a month. - Property tax: around 300 dollars a YEAR on this studio. Yes, a year. It's almost nothing. - Maintenance: honestly tiny. In two years of owning this apartment, I spent less than 200 dollars. Airbnb insurance covers the damages. [ANECDOTE / contradiction] And here's something counterintuitive. People think Airbnb creates way more wear and more maintenance than a yearly rental. In reality it's often the opposite. With short-term, a cleaner goes in every single week, so the second something starts to break, we catch it. With a yearly tenant, you hand over the apartment for one or two years and you discover the damage at the end, and THAT's when the real costs hit. Now, the 15 versus 20% on management. 15% is basic: they list it, answer messages, handle cleanings. 20%, what we do, is update pricing constantly, optimize everything, professional photos, a real cleaning process so the place doesn't degrade, plus extra services for the guest, early check-in, late check-out, extra cleaning, which generate extra income for you without you doing anything. The 5% you pay more, you get back: better reviews, fewer bad surprises, less wear. ## 7 · The taxes [anti-mythe] Let's kill the biggest myth of all: "zero tax in Paraguay." [GRAPHIC: "ZERO TAX?" barré] For your foreign income, fine, the territorial system means zero. But for real estate, it's different. If you own an apartment HERE and you rent it HERE, that's local income, and local income is taxed. You pay VAT on your rental revenue. Short-term and long-term are not taxed the same way, but roughly it lands between 8 and 15%. [À SOURCER: régime exact IVA + IRP courte durée pour poser LE chiffre juste] So no, it's not zero. It's still low, but anyone selling you "zero tax on your Airbnb" is selling you a line. ### 7bis · CTA [TRANSITION, en aparté] Quick one before we look at the future: if you want us to run these exact numbers on a specific unit before you buy, we'll build you the real simulation. Link below. ## Avant-dernière · What can we expect? (the Panama model) So where does this go? The comparison that makes sense is Panama, or Medellín, at their early stage: a capital modernizing fast, prices per square meter still well below the mature markets. [NUANCE] But I'm not going to tell you it's a guaranteed 5x. It's a real appreciation potential, not a promise. Use Panama as a reference point for the trajectory, not as a guarantee on your unit. ## Dernière · The traps [referme B2] Alright, the number one trap, the one I promised you at the start. [NUANCE, assumée] Most people think buying a FINISHED building is the safe move. It's often the opposite. Paraguay is a young market, and a young market changes fast. The developers building the first towers made mistakes, and they get better every few years. So a basic building from 5 or 10 years ago and one delivered off-plan in 2029 or 2030 are worlds apart, in construction quality and in services. [ANECDOTE] I've met plenty of people who bought very early. They're not all going to lose money. But when their building goes up for resale next to what's being built today, the only reason someone buys theirs is because it's cheap. There's no other reason. So they sacrifice their capital gain, and some of those older basic buildings become genuinely hard, almost impossible, to resell. Two more traps, fast: - Small "pretty" buildings with lots of services. People love them, but the copro charges can hit 3 to 4 dollars per square meter. That eats your yield alive. Big buildings split those charges across many more owners, so they rarely have this problem. I've seen copro charges explode, and the owner inside is not happy. - Oversupply. Today, in 2026, there is NO oversupply, a well-managed apartment has zero problem. But in 5 to 10 years, if the country becomes less attractive, you could get an oversupply of high-end towers. Two ways to protect yourself. One, buy a DIFFERENTIATED project. We have one here with an artificial lagoon, right next to the corporate center, the only one within 10 kilometers, that's a real moat. A generic tower on a big avenue, where a hundred others look the same, has nothing to defend it. Two, diversify. Not only high-end in the capital: the historic center that's about to be renovated, student housing near the universities in Mariano or San Lorenzo, middle-class units in Luque, close to Asunción but genuinely affordable. ## Conclusion · So, is it actually worth it? [referme B1] So, is Paraguay actually worth it? [NUANCE, le hot take, à garder quasi mot pour mot] Here's my honest answer. A lot of people sell you Paraguay as the new El Dorado, like no matter what you buy, you'll make money. The reality is very different. There's risk here like anywhere. The country is in a real boom, no doubt, but that doesn't mean you stop thinking. You can make great moves, and you can make catastrophic ones. It's a young market, so do your homework, know who's behind the project, and read and negotiate the contract, because even today a lot of developer contracts barely protect the buyer. When everything goes well, it's easy. It's when there's a problem that the contract protects you. And look, I own a real estate agency. So of course I have every interest in telling you real estate is great. Take what I say with a grain of salt, and ask the right questions, because some agents will sell you the first thing available without checking anything behind it. So is it worth it? The honest answer is: it doesn't only depend on Paraguay. With Lula in Brazil, with Europe's crises pushing capital toward dollarized safe havens, the context helps. But "worth it" depends on YOUR case: the right segment, real management, the right building. Get those right, and the numbers I showed you are very real. [TRANSITION, sortie <10s + pont vidéo B] And if you want to know exactly which buildings I'd buy right now and which ones I'd run from, that's the next video. --- ## À verrouiller avant tournage (placeholders) 1. Stats d'occupation exactes d'Alpha 11B + net réel/mois (confirmer le ~580 $ et le % net/an). 2. Eau + électricité exacts (sinon on garde ~50 $ élec, eau comprise dans expensas). 3. Régime fiscal exact du locatif courte durée (IVA + IRP) pour remplacer "8 à 15%". ## Sources des chiffres - Macro (PIB 6,6% 2025 / 4,7% 2026, déficit logement 65% Habitat, ~108k neuf INE, migration +63%) : `partie1-brief-source.md` (sourcé daté). - Rentabilités par zone + "temporaire bien géré 8-11% net" + premium comprimé + prix/m² Panama : `zavattiero-insights.md` (Forbes Paraguay, Todo El Campo 22/08/2026). - Chiffres de l'appart + charges + pièges + hot take : interview vocale de Matt du 2026-10-28 (`interview-reponses-matt.md`). ## Prochaines passes (longform-engine) `densite` (couper redondances / disclaimers réflexes) puis `analyse-retention` (hook, boucles, ancrages), après ta passe d'amélioration. Puis `cli.py load` vers l'app Prompteur pour le tournage de jeudi.